RUMORS OF WAR. (17 JULY 2016)

This is my short commentary on the state of world tension. Perhaps you’ve been watching…Obama is pushing Putin’s buttons. Putin is getting exasperated as his side of things is being ignored. Ukraine feels vulnerable to Russian aggression & it talks about regaining a nuclear capability which the Ukraine a few years ago discarded. China actually verbally threatens the U.S. with WW3. The fleets from both sides square off. Some awake people are quite alarmed. Most of America slumbers because the established mass media keeps them uninformed. They are blissfully unaware of all the tension. Russian citizens, better informed about Putin losing patience with the US govt., march in Moscow in favor of peace, letting Putin know many in Russia can still think for themselves and don’t want a world war.

IS IT WAR? I have already written that Putin has offensive military plans for the Ukraine. I have already written how he is watching for an opportunity to carry out a quick strike. WW3? I seriously doubt it. Putin talks like he could capture like 6 capitals of Eastern Europe in a quick strike. It is just talk. He is very intelligent. He understands precisely what his abilities are. China and Russia have more to lose than gain by war. But both countries are run by aggressive power-minded people, and they will push, and they will saber rattle. It is definitely the cold war all over again. And it would definitely be wise if people would listen to Putin. The talk by the Ukraine about rebuilding a nuclear capability is stupid. It reminds me of some of the provocative things Poland said to the Nazis, before the Nazis invaded them. When you are dealing with a powerful bully—don’t provoke him. Don’t fear him…and stand up for yourself…but don’t play into his hands by acting aggressive; that should be common sense. Poland was brutally murdering its German population before Hitler invaded. History glosses over that & other facts,… that the German people were ticked off at Poland, and supported wholeheartedly the invasion to teach the Poles a lesson. The same situation exists with the Ukraine. They need to watch carefully how they treat the Russians—even if they dislike them. Diffuse the tension, don’t increase it with a bully.

MY POSITION. If any fighting is to break out, it will be in my view, as I described in my post “If I were Putin…” That is, just as he is verbally threatening Kiev, he will militarily feint toward Kiev, but instead launch a limited offensive from the eastern provinces SW towards the Crimea, to regain a land access to the Crimea. The Russian people would support that, and it would continue to make him look strong to the world, which seems to be a major focus of Putin’s. It would help the Crimea economically. None of these moves so far are helping Putin economically. That is quite different from Hitler, whose bloodless gains of Czechoslavakia & Austria brought great economic gain, incl. the Skoda works and lots of good quality Czech arms which helped him take on Poland. Invading Norway was an economic necessity for Hitler to gain the Scandinavian iron needed for a modern war. However, Putin’s aggressiveness has cost Russia economically. I don’t see a world war soon.

I SEE POSTURING. Russia & China can wait until the USA is weaker, or until Trump is President, and Putin can deal with someone he likes. There is no sense attacking us now, when they can reasonably expect us, given time, to continue to weaken…unless they know something I don’t. That Putin would fire all his Baltic Fleet commanders tells me that he wants to insure control over his military. That means he intends to use them, otherwise it would not be such a critical issue. We can expect that Russia will act intelligently. Now, if I could only feel that way about the U.S. & the Ukraine. I share all this to calm people. There are plenty of other threats that I deem more serious,… of course how Obama will act is not reassuring to me. Perhaps it’s a good idea he takes plenty of vacations…for which he has spent $70.5 million of the taxpayers’ dollars doing. I’d rather he spent millions playing golf in Hawaii than planning a war. I still favor the view that WW3 is yet a few years off. Other views are welcome on the thread. What do you think?