This is a short discussion on recent military developments around the world. Its purpose is to inform my readership of the current military situation of the major powers. All the major powers, the US, NATO, Russia, & China have been moving their militaries, and positioning for possible combat. The U.S. military put all its bases on alert, and called up personnel. They have also been moving heavy military vehicles all over the place. I have been reluctant to write something on all the reports I have been getting—I don’t want to sound alarmist—and cause people to mistakenly think war is upon us already. I would not go so far to say war at this time, but there certainly are tensions as you will read about! …and the mainstream press is being quiet about all the tension. I decided not all of my readers will have managed to track (via the alternative media, since the main stream is not reporting on all this) what has been happening, so it would be appropriate to give this update. (This is based on a couple dozen different reports.)
EASTERN EUROPE. The tensions that are manifested today in Eastern Europe are rooted in centuries of aggression & mistrust. Poland & the Baltic states have a history of having to fend off Russian aggression… and most of the time throughout history Russian aggression has ravaged these nations. An example of how this distrust continues is Poland’s Foreign Minister Witold Waszczykowski when he told a July forum: “We have to reject any type of wishful thinking with regard to pragmatic cooperation with Russia as long as it keeps on invading its neighbors.” So Poland and the 3 small Baltic nations have asked NATO for help. A lot of what I would characterize as “fear mongering reports” about Russian intentions, as well as Putin using his military in an aggressive way in the region has people stirred up more than is necessary. In response to recent Russian aggression, NATO is manning an American built anti-missile shield in Poland, and has moved 4 battalions (about 4,000 men) into the Baltic States (Estonia, Latvia, & Lithuania). One of these will be an American battalion, I think the other 3 are 1 German, 1 British, & 1 Canadian.
The U.S. bases nearly 100,000 soldiers in Europe, and it is prepositioning equipment for 3 battalions in the Baltic-Poland region, and rotating a battalion worth of troops through the area as a defensive move. Some of the equipment being moved may relate to this. I wrote previously about NATO air assets & air patrols in the region. NATO created a Very High Readiness Joint Task Force, which is a brigade that can be airlifted immediately into action. And has a second “response group” of land, sea & air forces numbering 40,000 that could move soon after the Very High Readiness group moved. NATO tactical HQs were est. in Poland & Romania (i.e. for a conflict in either the Baltic or Ukrainian theaters.) All 6 of the eastern European states that were once part of the Soviet empire, have Force Integration Units, so that arriving NATO troops can be seamlessly integrated into a successful coalition of forces. Plans are to preposition armored equipment for 2 American armored brigades. The men can be airlifted quickly, the tanks & armored vehicles cannot be. Bear in mind, preparations for war don’t necessarily mean war.
RUSSIA. Putin has been quoted, “Russia does not wish for the chaos to spread, does not want war, and has no intention of starting one. However, today Russia sees the outbreak of global war is almost inevitable, is prepared for, and is continuing to prepare for it.” I think that is a fair assessment on his part. Putin has moved armored forces into the Donbass region of the Ukraine, exactly where I opined that if I were him I would launch an offensive towards the Crimea, to link the Crimea up to the rest of Russia by a land link. It is something that he can do with the limited forces he has. He will wait until the timing is right. At the first provocation, he will seize the initiative.
Russia has divided its territory in 4 military districts, and its navy into 4 fleets. Over the last years, Putin has been downsizing the Russia ground forces while upgrading their equipment. I am not sure of the exact figure but about 70% of the ground forces now have been upgraded to the most modern equipment. The Russian National Guard and Reserves will have to use stockpiled older equipment if they get called up. The Ground Forces only have a total of 25 divisions, of which 7 are assigned to the Western District, which is the district that is across from the Baltics and the Ukraine. As a comparison, during the ‘80’s, the USSR had 100 divisions (Soviet & allied Warsaw pact divisions) facing NATO…now Putin has fewer than 10 to deploy and employ on this front. This is why I have said that with Putin’s limited forces, he will plan to use them in quick limited ways, he has no business getting into a world war, and he knows that. Reports have come in of friction between Putin and other Russian leaders who don’t want to act so aggressive. Or to put it more bluntly, the Russian people are not clamoring to get into a world war.
Now 70% of the Russian people view the US as Russia’s biggest enemy, which is why France insisted that non-US NATO troops man the missile shield that was recently put in place in Poland. Trump wants to get along with Russia, and has been quoted saying that he would recognize Russia’s annexation of the Crimea. Personally, I think that just makes sense. It’s what the Crimean people want…NATO is still using the seizure as justification to crowd and pressure Russia.
Oh & by the way, the Russian govt. has talked about the rampant criminal activity that degrades their military, about 20% of their defense budget gets stolen, and doesn’t reach the military forces. Putin has tried to make headway against the cartels, but the sad fact is that criminal cartels run Russia, and Putin has to accept them.
UKRAINE. The Ukraine has moved one of its two armored brigades into the Donbass region, where fighting has been going on…and where Russia has recently moved armored forces. On 5 JULY ’16, the Ukrainian army said it had captured two armored vehicles of the elite Russian 76th Chernigov Paratroop division (which is normally based at Pskov). The Ukrainians have been fighting Russian & separatist Ukrainian militia forces. Both sides are using drones. (Russia denies it has troops in the Ukraine, which is a ridiculous lie, but truth often suffers all around when conflicts occur.)
The Ukraine has a goal of switching their military to NATO standards by 2020. Along these lines, 500 American & Canadian military instructors are training groups of 500 Ukrainian troops at a base at Yavoriv, Ukraine. Some of the Americans are National Guard. The Ukrainian military which is an offspring of the Soviets, uses Russian tactics in which infantry men are expendable and move forward in groups…so the trainers are trying to get them to switch to tactics that are not so spendy in human life. Part of the backbone of the Ukrainian army are its 15 mechanized brigades, incl. paratroop units, and air defense battalions. Last yr. 10 American and 6 British armored vehicles were given to the Ukraine…but the U.S. has been reluctant to give lethal combat equipment. The Ukraine produces Soviet style military equipment, & uses old stockpiles of the same from the Soviet era.
TURKEY. As the coup attempt to overthrow Erdogan was winding down, Erdogan felt that the American base at Incirlik (located near the Turkish town of Adana) was involved in some way with the coup. Power to the American base was cut around 16 JULY, leaving the forces there with only a few emergency generators and no air conditioning in a very hot environment. The air space to Incirlik was restricted and the base came under siege by a combination of 7,000 Turkish forces (with armored vehicles such as TOMA armored vehicles) and thousands of militant Moslems yelling “Death to America”. Moslems went online calling for the base to be stormed and all the Americans wiped out. All this has been happening for 3 weeks now with nothing being said by the mainstream news. What is further bad news, is that the Incirlik base has been a key node in the U.S.’s power in the region and has up to 90 B-61 tactical nukes (the exact no. is secret). It’s unclear what, if much, the Obama administration has done…and some speculate that he wants the nukes to fall into radical Islamic hands. Certainly, America does not project enough strength if Turkey (nominally a NATO ally) can threaten a key base like this for 3 weeks, and place the American airforce and marines at the base under severe hardship, as they are cut off from the world. I can’t recall anything like this in my life. And more amazing is the total quiet from mainstream media. It is clear the Obama administration does not want the American people to hear about this. This report is now as long as I like to make reports; time to sum up.
CONCLUSION. The absence of war does not equal peace. As you can see we don’t have peace. Peace comes through Christ Jesus, and is not the absent of something, but the presence of the Holy Spirit.